Monday, September 27, 2004

I read the news today, oh boy.


This hurts:
Support for the Coalition moved to a historic high of 54 per cent in two-party-preferred terms, eight points ahead of Labor and widening the lead by six points in just a week.

I've been searching frantically for some informed comment telling me that this poll is inaccurate, or focuses on the wrong issues, or that there is now an 8 point margin of error. But there's nothing. Chris Sheil's analysis is very sobering:

Alright, Nielsen is out. And it's ugly. Real ugly. There's no getting around an 8 point spread. It's bad news. But not unambiguously so, even if it comes on top of yesterday's bad Morgan phone poll. The story is here, with a comment here.

The guts is that the LNP is ahead 54/46 on the 2pp and 50/36 on the primary. That's a beyond-margin-of-error 8 point spread. Perhaps Labor is stuffed. If this poll was an actual vote, it would be the biggest LNP primary since '75 and 2pp since '77.

I've decided to console myself with the thought that not that long ago, the polls had changed dramatically in the ALP's favour, so they might swing back again soon. Sort of reinforces my earlier speculation that the last few days will be vital.

I don't know if my 'denial' strategy will work though. I've noticed that my pessimism about the likely election result has started to derogate my overall interest in the election. That probably makes me sound very fickle and shallow, but no one likes bad news.

Anybody else having a similar reaction?


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