Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Only 5 days of blind optimism left...

Five days left of campaigning also means there’s only 5 days left for pre-election blogging!

I suppose now would be a pertinent time to get some predictive thoughts down on record. Its pretty obvious I don’t have the knowledge to be able to sit down and work through the electorates, analyse polling data and come up with a well researched picture of a likely House of Reps, Senate, or marginal electorate results.

However, as far as generalised, airy-fairy, off-the-top-of-the-head type predictions, I reckon I’m pretty well qualified (ie, I have all the right physical attributes needed to give 'gut' predictions).

At this stage, it just doesn’t feel like Latham has enough momentum to get him over the top of the incumbent’s advantage. One just gets the sense that he’s almost there. But that really counts for nothing if Howard gets back in. Just ask Kim Beazley.

Lately I’ve been investing all my hopes in a 1999 Victorian election style ALP victory. In the coming days, I may even allow myself to start getting my hopes up.

But I’m going to hold off for now. It really does seem way too close to call. I guess it doesn’t really matter if I get my hopes up and they are then dashed by an ALP loss. I will be utterly devastated any way just by the result, and it won’t really make that much difference whether or not I was expecting it.

As usual, Backpages has some meaty discussion of the latest polls, and I should probably do some more research before flying off the handle with wildly pessimistic or unrealistically optimistic predictions.

On the advertisements front, I quite liked the latest Mark Latham effort, which obviously aims to address his perceived lack of experience.

You can see a story board of the advertisement here, and the ALP’s site also allows you to watch video of the ads.

The Liberal’s latest interest rate scare advertisement is of the brutal and heavy handed school of advertising, and if taken on face value by your ordinary mortgage payer could have some nasty results (if you haven’t seen it, it drones on with predicted rises in monthly mortgage repayments if interest rates were to rise – but of course fails to mention that a rate rise has been predicted for later in the year irrespective of the election result). It would be interesting to see if there is any research on the effectiveness of these advertisements.

Also, just to show how truly evil the Liberals are, they’ve generated an interest rate scare pop-up ad on their website. The bastards!


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